Alzheimer's changes in the brain long before anyone notices. Biomarkers turn abnormal in a broadly predictable order: amyloid, then tau and nerve-cell damage, then thinking. Play the clock, and switch between families with a dominant gene and the common late-onset form.
Timeline
Where is this person on the 2024 map?
In 2024 an Alzheimer's Association workgroup proposed two scales: a biological stage from biomarkers (A to D, by how far tau has spread on PET) and a clinical stage from symptoms (0 to 6). The International Working Group (IWG) disagreed about what to call people without symptoms. Set the biomarkers and symptoms, or pick an example. 122,255
Examples
Amyloid (Core 1)
Tau PET
Symptoms
Shaded cells: the expected diagonal from 1A to 4–6D. Hatched: no Core 1 biomarker abnormal.
How the model and the definitions changed
Hypothetical model
Jack 2010, revised 2013
The 2010 model put amyloid first and neurodegeneration (CSF tau, MRI atrophy, FDG) after a variable lag, tracking symptoms. The 2013 update indexed people by time, added person-to-person variation, reordered some markers, and proposed that tau may start on its own in sporadic disease and be accelerated by amyloid. 252,253
Measured
DIAN, and its caveats
DIAN's numbers come from 128 mutation carriers placed on a clock set by the parent's age at onset. Longitudinal data from 217 people confirmed amyloid changes first, but disagreed with the cross-sectional timing of CSF tau by more than 10 years and showed CSF p-tau181 falling near onset. The authors warn the results may not apply to sporadic Alzheimer's. 41,345
Definitions moved
2011, 2018, 2024
In 2011, diagnosis was clinical and biomarkers were not advised for routine use. In 2018, a research framework defined Alzheimer's biologically and required A+ and T+. In 2024, one abnormal Core 1 result, such as amyloid alone, is enough. 254,255,347
Modelled
How long each phase lasts
Across 6 cohorts (3,268 people), someone with preclinical Alzheimer's at age 70 was estimated to spend about 10 years preclinical, 4 with MCI and 6 with dementia. Total duration ranged from 24 years starting at 60 to 15 years starting at 80. 501
Exam hookAmyloid is necessary for the biological label but tracks symptoms poorly; neurodegeneration tracks symptom severity, and tau stage carries prognosis. In cognitively unimpaired people, against A−T−, the hazard ratio for progressing to dementia was 1.5 for stage A, 5.6 for medial temporal tau and 39.9 for neocortical tau. 252,255