The 2024 Lancet Commission estimated how much dementia worldwide is linked to 14 risk factors that could, in principle, be changed. Play the wheel to build up its estimate, then pick any factor to see the evidence behind it and the caveats.
Population attributable fractions from the Commission's Figure 9, rounded to whole numbers. Click a segment or a row, or use the buttons below.
What the prevention trials found
A risk factor linked to dementia in observational studies is not proof that changing it prevents dementia. Randomised trials test that. Play the plot to bring in each trial's main result; many are null or small.
Dots are estimates; lines are 95% confidence intervals. A line that crosses the dashed no-effect line means the result is compatible with no effect. Units differ between rows, so compare each with its own zero.
Open questions
WHO 2019 and the Lancet Commission 2024
The two bodies weigh evidence differently. WHO grades recommendations on intervention evidence; the Commission models how much dementia each factor may account for.
Factor
WHO 2019 recommendation (evidence quality)
Lancet Commission 2024
Physical activity
Strong for normal cognition (moderate); conditional for MCI (low) 77
Inactivity: about 2% 321
Smoking
Stop smoking: strong (low) 77
About 2% 321
Diet
Mediterranean-like diet: conditional (moderate). Vitamin B, E, PUFA and multi-complex supplements: strong recommendation against (moderate) 77