Part 1 · The disease
Crystals vs serum urate
Urate crystals grow only while serum urate stays above its saturation point of about 6.8 mg/dL, and they dissolve once it is kept below 6. Scrub through fifteen years of one imagined person, start treatment at year 9, then pick the urate level treatment reaches and how cool the joint is.
Schematic, not to scale. One imagined person, not a prediction. The fixed points are published: saturation at 6.8 mg/dL at 37 °C and 6.0 mg/dL at 35 °C, the < 6 mg/dL target, and tophus shrinkage speeding up in a straight line as on-treatment urate falls. The growth and shrink slopes are relative, because no study gives a rate in mm per month that applies here. 236,249,312,331
Who forms crystals, and how fast they leave
Fifteen-year risk of gout by baseline urate
Individual-participant data from 4 US cohorts: 18,889 people and 212,363 person-years. Hazard ratios are adjusted and compared with a baseline urate < 6 mg/dL (< 360 µmol/L). The 15-year cumulative incidence was 1.1% (95% CI 0.9–1.4) below 6 mg/dL and 49% (31–67) at ≥ 10 mg/dL (≥ 595 µmol/L). Each dot is one person in 100. 82
Crystals leaving joint fluid on treatment
18 men (11 knees, 7 first MTPs) were aspirated every 3 months after starting urate lowering. Median urate fell from 550 to 290 µmol/L (≈ 9.2 to 4.9 mg/dL) by 3 months. Crystals left every joint, after 3 to 33 months, and the time tracked how long the person had had gout (rs = 0.71, p < 0.01). The report does not give separate times for knees and toes. 308
Seeing the deposits
| Finding | Who | Result | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urate deposits on dual-energy CT of the feet | Asymptomatic, urate ≥ 540 µmol/L (≈ 9.1 mg/dL) | 6/25 (24%) | 79 |
| Early gout (≤ 3 years) | 11/14 (79%) | 79 | |
| Late gout | 16/19 (84%) | 79 | |
| Double-contour sign at the first MTP on ultrasound | 50 asymptomatic hyperuricaemic people vs 52 normouricaemic controls | 25% of joints vs none | 316 |
| Double contour after sustained urate lowering | 5 people followed 7–18 months | Gone in every joint where urate stayed < 6 mg/dL, not where it stayed ≥ 7 mg/dL | 411 |
| Crystals still in the knee | Urate ≤ 6 mg/dL for more than 12 months | 7/16 knees (44%) | 235 |
| DECT deposits in people meeting remission criteria | On allopurinol ≥ 300 mg/day | 44% in remission vs 73.6% not in remission | 83 |