Part 2 · Course and diagnosis
Diagnosis and the MDS criteria
There is still no single test for Parkinson's. The diagnosis is clinical: a specialist confirms parkinsonism, looks for anything that points elsewhere, and weighs the warning signs against the supportive ones. Tick the features below, or load an example, and the 2015 MDS criteria give their verdict. Then see what a scan or a synuclein test adds.
The MDS clinical diagnostic criteria were built for research, but may serve as a general guide in clinical practice. 112,213 NICE guidance in the UK, which predates them, still bases diagnosis on the UK Brain Bank criteria and advises referring people with suspected Parkinson's "quickly and untreated" to a specialist. 241 This calculator is a teaching tool, not a diagnosis.
Walk the case through the four steps
The same case, one gate at a time. The marker stops at the first gate it fails.
The steps and rules follow the 2015 MDS criteria. 213,288 Change the ticks above and replay.
What a positive scan or synuclein test really means
Teaching toolPick a test (its sensitivity and specificity) and how likely the condition is before testing. The grid sorts 1,000 people by their true status and their result. The arithmetic is exact; whether the inputs fit any one person is not.
Filled circle: true positive. Ring: false negative. Square: false positive. Small dot: true negative. Teaching tool, not a diagnostic calculator.
The test toolbox
DaT-SPECT (ioflupane)
Approved in 2011, with suspected dementia with Lewy bodies added in 2022, as "an adjunct to other diagnostic evaluations". It shows loss of dopamine terminals, but PD, MSA and PSP all have that, and the scan "was not designed to distinguish among the conditions". It changed management in 54% and the diagnosis in 31% of people with suspected parkinsonism. NICE suggests considering it for tremor when essential tremor cannot be told from parkinsonism clinically. 27,99,241
When the scan is normal (SWEDD)
In the ELLDOPA trial, 19 of 142 imaged people with clinically diagnosed early PD (about 13%) had no dopaminergic deficit. Under MDS 2015 a normal scan is an absolute exclusion, so they cannot count as PD. In PPMI, synuclein SAA was positive in 9% of these people against 4% of controls. Some experts object that early scans can be of low quality. 97,213,332
Cardiac MIBG
Against other neurodegenerative parkinsonism, the delayed heart-to-mediastinum ratio gave 89.7% sensitivity and 82.6% specificity; in early PD, 94.1% and 80.2%. Cardiac sympathetic denervation on MIBG is one of the MDS supportive criteria, alongside smell loss, but no autopsy series in a 2025 review reported it, a sign of limited availability. 112,258,288
MRI signs
- Loss of the nigrosome-1 "swallow tail": sensitivity 0.94, specificity 0.90, but only against healthy adults. 54
- Hummingbird sign for PSP: specificity 99.5%, sensitivity only 51.6%. 234
- Hot-cross-bun sign and putaminal diffusivity (90% sensitivity, 93% specificity against PD) are MRI markers in the 2022 MSA criteria. 373
- NICE advises against structural MRI to diagnose PD itself. 241
Synuclein seed amplification (SAA)
In PPMI spinal fluid, SAA found PD with 87.7% sensitivity and 96.3% specificity against controls. Positivity was 98.6% in sporadic PD with smell loss, 78.3% without it, and 67.5% in LRRK2 PD. The FDA has endorsed it for enriching clinical trials, which is not a diagnostic approval; access is "mostly limited to research studies". 112,332,344
Skin biopsy
Phosphorylated synuclein in skin was found in 92.7% of PD, 98.2% of MSA, 96.0% of DLB, 100% of pure autonomic failure and 3.3% of controls. The authors say it still needs validation "in unselected clinical populations". The commercial test is not FDA-approved as a diagnostic for PD. 124,153
Levodopa and apomorphine challenges
Sensitivity for established PD was 0.86 for apomorphine, 0.75 for an acute levodopa test and 0.91 for chronic levodopa therapy. The review concluded that the acute tests add nothing to chronic treatment and cause adverse events, and NICE advises against them. 63,241
How often the clinical diagnosis is right
In 100 brains of people diagnosed with PD by neurologists in 1992, only 76 had PD. A meta-analysis put the accuracy of clinical diagnosis at 80.6%, and it had not improved over 25 years. In a London community study, at least 15% of people with a PD diagnosis did not meet strict criteria. 157,309,320
Should Parkinson's be defined by biology?
In 2024 two groups proposed research definitions built on the synuclein test, and the Movement Disorder Society answered with a statement of caution. Pick a person to see how each framework would describe them. Disputed