Part 2 · Diagnosis & course
ALSFRS-R and the course
The ALSFRS-R adds up 12 everyday abilities into one score from 48 down to 0. Press Play to follow three illustrative courses past the milestones of King's staging, then score the 12 items yourself in the calculator below.
The lines are arithmetic, 48 minus rate × months, using the lower quartile, median and upper quartile of ΔFS at diagnosis in a French cohort: 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 points a month. 217 For comparison, PRO-ACT trial participants fell by 1.02 a month on average 29 and a UK and Australian clinic cohort by 0.58. 66 They are illustrations, not observed courses. Stage bands and event markers are mean months from onset in people who had died in a London clinic cohort: means, not medians, and other cohorts differ. 451 The order in which the four domains fall is schematic.
ALSFRS-R calculator
This calculator shows how the published scale, the ΔFS formula and published cut-offs classify a set of item scores. It does not diagnose ALS and it is not a prognosis for any person. The ALSFRS-R is copyrighted and is scored with its own wording; the descriptions here are short paraphrases of each item's topic and levels, written for this guide. Each item is scored 0 to 4, so the total runs from 0 to 48, where 48 is normal function. 66,79,94
Prognosis: the ENCALS model
ENCALS is a published model that sorts people into five risk groups. The figures below are medians for groups of people in the development data, as published. They describe populations, not what will happen to one person, and the model's own inputs come from a clinical assessment.
Data came from 14 ALS centres in nine European countries, for people seen between 1992 and 2016. The endpoint combined three events, counted from symptom onset: non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 hours a day, tracheostomy, or death. Of 16 candidate predictors, eight entered the model. 534
Tested in external data, the model separated longer from shorter times fairly well (c statistic 0.78, 95% CI 0.77-0.80) and its predictions matched observed times (calibration slope 1.01). 534
| Predictor | Univariable HR | Reading the hazard ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Bulbar onset | 1.71 | Above 1: endpoint sooner |
| Age at onset (per year) | 1.03 | Above 1: endpoint sooner |
| Definite against probable or possible ALS | 1.47 | Above 1: endpoint sooner |
| Diagnostic delay | 0.52 | Below 1: a longer delay goes with a later endpoint |
| FVC (forced vital capacity) | 0.99 | Below 1: higher FVC goes with a later endpoint |
| Progression rate (ΔFRS) | 6.33 | Above 1: faster decline, endpoint sooner |
| Frontotemporal dementia | 1.34 | Above 1: endpoint sooner |
| C9orf72 repeat expansion | 1.45 | Above 1: endpoint sooner |
Hazard ratios as published. 534
Bars: predicted medians of 17.7, 25.3, 32.2, 43.7 and 91.0 months, as given in a 2022 review. 180 Marks: observed medians of 16.5, 25.2, 32.8 and 44.6 months in the first four groups. 534
What the numbers mean, and their limits
How much change matters
In a UK and Australian clinic cohort, the minimal important difference over about 3 months was 3.8 points on the usual summed scale (2 on an interval version); other methods gave 2.02 to 5.43. 66
90% of 65 surveyed clinicians and researchers rated a 20% slowing of decline as at least somewhat meaningful, and 93% rated a 50% slowing as very meaningful. 91 In a survey of 522 people with ALS, the median minimum slowing expected from a drug was 20%. 330
One total, or four domains?
In an Irish register cohort, bulbar and motor subscore slopes fitted prognostic models better than the total slope, and the respiratory subscore added nothing once the other two were known. The authors argue for reporting domains. 455
The scale is analysed as if each point were equal, although its items are categories; an interval (Rasch) transformation has been proposed. 66
Trials and clinics differ
Pooled trial data average about 1 point a month (PRO-ACT 1.02, ±2.3). 29 A clinic cohort averaged 0.58, and fast progressors were more likely to drop out of follow-up. 66 Survival from onset ranged from 4 months to 11.9 years in one German cohort. 270
King's and MiToS measure different things
King's counts regions involved and then the need for gastrostomy or NIV; MiToS counts domains in which independence is lost. In LiCALS trial data they agreed only fairly (weighted kappa 0.21): King's gives more detail early, MiToS late, and the authors propose using both. 111,168,451
Losing at least one MiToS domain, or an ALSFRS-R fall of 6 to 9 points, over 6 months was the best cut-off for predicting death, tracheotomy or more than 23 hours a day of NIV at 12 to 18 months. 494
Related: Breathing and NIV · Swallowing and feeding tubes · Diagnosis & criteria